Clima, disuguaglianza e lotta di classe

di Daniel Tanuro

Durante la COP26 di Glasgow, un’informazione scioccante è stata data ai delegati dal direttore dell’Istituto di Potsdam (PIK), Johan Rockström: per restare sotto 1,5°C di riscaldamento [1] rispettando la giustizia climatica, l’1% più ricco della popolazione mondiale dovrà dividere le sue emissioni per trenta entro il 2030; il 50% più povero, invece, potrà moltiplicarle per tre.

Per apprezzare l’impatto di queste cifre, bisogna tener conto che sono state date alle delegazioni ufficiali da un eminente scienziato che riassume le dieci più recenti scoperte della scienza del cambiamento climatico. L’ufficio stampa di PIK mi ha detto quale fonte il direttore aveva usato, così sono andato all’articolo di riferimento per saperne di più. Si tratta di uno studio commissionato da Oxfam e realizzato da Tim Gore, un ex capo della ONG, che recentemente è diventato capo del dipartimento Low Carbon and Circular Economy dell’Istituto europeo per la politica ambientale[3]. Il suo contenuto merita sia un’ampia diffusione che un esame critico.

Il tema dell’ingiustizia climatica viene solitamente affrontato paese per paese, secondo le responsabilità storiche del Nord e del Sud globale: il primo è ricco e responsabile, il secondo è povero e vittima. Tuttavia, gli americani o gli europei poveri non sono ricchi, e i cinesi o gli indiani ricchi non sono poveri… Lo studio Oxfam cerca di integrare questa realtà di classe. Questa è la sua principale risorsa. Ma cominciamo a presentare la metodologia utilizzata.

Metodologia
L’autore confronta le emissioni di CO2 nella sfera del consumo. Le emissioni sono quindi attribuite al paese in cui i beni e i servizi sono consumati, non ai paesi in cui sono prodotti. Sono espressi in tonnellate di CO2 per persona all’anno, ottenuti dividendo le emissioni del paese in questione per la popolazione. Il risultato include tutte le fonti di emissioni: famiglie, imprese, servizi pubblici, ma è corretto secondo i risultati delle indagini nazionali sulle condizioni di vita delle famiglie[4]. È questa correzione che permette di comprendere la disuguaglianza climatica non solo in termini Nord-Sud, ma anche in termini di poveri e ricchi all’interno dei paesi, siano essi poveri o ricchi. Il testo sottolinea la crescente importanza di questo approccio:

“anche se la disuguaglianza del carbonio è spesso massima a livello globale,[5] le disuguaglianze all’interno dei paesi sono anche molto significative. Condizionano sempre più l’amplificazione della disuguaglianza globale e probabilmente hanno un impatto maggiore sull’accettabilità politica e sociale degli sforzi nazionali di riduzione delle emissioni” (enfasi aggiunta, DT).

Questo punto, che è ovviamente di importanza strategica nella lotta contro il cambiamento climatico, verrà ripreso più avanti.

La politica climatica aumenta la disuguaglianza
Abbiamo una stima delle quote di emissioni attuali attribuibili al consumo di diversi gruppi della popolazione: l’1% più ricco, il 10% più ricco, il 40% del reddito “medio” e il 50% più povero[6]. Sulla base dei “Nationally Determined Contributions” degli Stati[7] e dei nuovi impegni che hanno comunicato poco prima della COP26, possiamo stimare il probabile volume di emissioni nel 2030, e quindi anche la deviazione di questo volume dalla traiettoria di riduzione da seguire per raggiungere “zero emissioni nette” nel 2050[8]. 8] Si può anche stimare la probabile evoluzione delle quote di emissioni di ogni gruppo di reddito, metterle in relazione con il numero di persone in ogni gruppo, e quindi ottenere i volumi medi di emissioni per persona e per gruppo, a livello globale e nazionale. Infine, questi volumi possono essere confrontati con il volume medio di emissioni individuali che è globalmente compatibile con l’obiettivo massimo di 1,5°C: 2,3 tonnellate di CO2/persona/anno[9]. In questo modo, facciamo più che visualizzare l’attuale ingiustizia climatica; possiamo vedere in quale direzione la politica attuale la cambierà entro il 2030, a livello globale e per gruppo.

I risultati possono essere riassunti in una tabella:

Per non fraintendere queste cifre, bisogna sottolineare che qui non stiamo valutando la disuguaglianza sociale, ma quella del carbonio. Così, il calo previsto nel 2030 della quota di emissioni globali attribuibili al 10% non è ovviamente dovuto al fatto che i ricchi saranno meno ricchi tra dieci anni. Piuttosto, riflette il fatto che i membri del gruppo del 10% globale vivono principalmente in paesi capitalisti sviluppati dove l’intensità di carbonio diminuirà più rapidamente che nel resto del mondo, e che hanno, più di altri, i mezzi per acquisire tecnologie verdi.

Torneremo più tardi sulla questione di come interpretare il fatto che la quota di emissioni dell’1% molto ricco continua a crescere. Per ora, concentriamoci sui molto ricchi e i poveri.

Lo studio conferma quello che Oxfam dice da anni: l’1% più ricco della popolazione mondiale emette quasi il doppio di CO2 rispetto al 50% più povero. Ma mostra anche che le politiche climatiche decise dai governi dopo la COP21 (2015, Parigi) approfondiscono questa ingiustizia: infatti, la quota di emissioni globali attribuibili al consumo dell’1% più ricco, passata dal 13% nel 1990 al 15% nel 2015, continuerà a salire fino al 16% nel 2030. Sarà allora del 25% più alto che nel 1990, e 16 volte più alto della media globale. Nel 2030, ogni persona del gruppo globale ricco emetterà più di 30 volte le 2,3 tonnellate di CO2 per persona all’anno che sono compatibili con il limite di 1,5°C. Il 50% più povero, d’altra parte, vedrà pochi cambiamenti: la loro quota di emissioni globali passerà dall’8% al 9% all’anno e le loro emissioni pro capite rimarranno ben al di sotto delle 2,3 tonnellate di CO2/persona/anno.

La riduzione delle emissioni è inversamente proporzionale al reddito
Il quadro del peggioramento dell’ingiustizia climatica globale dalla COP21 diventa più chiaro quando confrontiamo le tendenze 2015-2030 delle emissioni pro capite per ogni gruppo (come riflesso nelle politiche attuali), con le tendenze che queste emissioni per gruppo dovrebbero seguire per rimanere al di sotto del riscaldamento di 1,5°C nella giustizia climatica:

A livello globale, le emissioni pro capite nel 2030 saranno inferiori del 7% rispetto al 2015 (se gli Stati rispetteranno i loro impegni!) Sappiamo che questa riduzione è molto inferiore alla riduzione media pro capite necessaria per rimanere al di sotto di 1,5°C: 52%. L’elemento nuovo che emerge qui è che, oltre a peggiorare la disuguaglianza globale, lo sforzo incorporato nelle politiche climatiche dei governi è inversamente proporzionale al reddito: l’1% più ricco farà un ventesimo (97/5), il 10% più ricco un ottavo (90/11), e il 40% a reddito medio un sesto (57/9) di quello che la giustizia climatica dovrebbe imporre. Ci sono quindi sia disuguaglianze tra queste tre classi (il 40% “medio” dei percettori di reddito si avvicina di più all’obiettivo), sia una disuguaglianza ancora maggiore, in quanto la metà della popolazione mondiale utilizzerà nel 2030 solo un tredicesimo del budget di carbonio a cui avrebbe diritto se fosse rispettato il principio delle “responsabilità e capacità differenziate” (233/17)[10].

L’evoluzione delle quote di emissioni attribuibili al 10% più ricco (tra 55.000 e 172.000 dollari/anno) e al 40% con un reddito cosiddetto “medio” (tra 9.800 e 55.000 dollari/anno) merita attenzione. Queste due categorie rappresentano quote sostanziali, persino maggioritarie, dei lavoratori rispettivamente nei paesi capitalisti sviluppati e in quelli emergenti[11]. Lo studio include un grafico illuminante che confronta tre traiettorie di cambiamento delle emissioni pro capite per reddito – dal più povero dei poveri al più ricco dei ricchi: la traiettoria 1990-2015, la traiettoria 2015-2030 e la traiettoria 2015-2030 coerente con il massimo di 1,5°C nella giustizia climatica. La doppia conclusione dello studio è sorprendente:

1/ “le classi medie globali (il 40%) che hanno visto i loro tassi di emissione crescere più velocemente durante il 1990-2015 sperimenteranno la più grande inversione durante il 2015-2030”;

2/ “le riduzioni più profonde (di emissioni, di TD) verranno dai cittadini a più basso reddito dei paesi ricchi”.

Promesse di una “transizione giusta”: fumo e specchi
Porre l’ingiustizia climatica in termini di gruppi di reddito cattura realtà che sfuggono all’analisi quando la questione è compresa semplicemente in termini di paesi ricchi e poveri. In particolare, evidenzia la crescente responsabilità dei ricchi, e specialmente dei molto ricchi, non solo nel Nord ma anche nel Sud globale. Come afferma lo studio,

“è notevole che in tutti i principali paesi emettitori, le proiezioni 2030 del 10% più ricco e dell’1% più ricco a livello nazionale mostrano impronte di consumo individuali sostanzialmente al di sopra del livello globale di 1,5°C pro capite” (enfasi aggiunta, DT).

Diamo un’occhiata più da vicino:

-L’India è l’unico grande paese emittente in cui le emissioni medie pro capite nel 2030 rimarranno al di sotto delle 2,3 tonnellate di CO2/persona/anno corrispondenti al massimo di 1,5°C. È anche l’unico in cui le emissioni del 50% più povero rimarranno ben al di sotto di questo livello.

Ma le emissioni del 10% più ricco degli indiani supereranno la soglia di cinque volte, e quelle dell’1% più ricco più di venti volte.

-Il 50% più povero degli americani supererà di poco la soglia di 2,3 tCO2/persona/anno, ma l’1% più ricco emetterà in media cinquantacinque volte di più (127 tonnellate) e il 10% più ricco quindici volte di più (circa 35 t).

-In Cina, le emissioni del 50% più povero rimarranno al di sotto della soglia fatidica nel 2030, ma quelle del 10% più ricco saranno più di dieci volte superiori e quelle dell’1% più di trenta volte (82 tonnellate).

-Anche le proiezioni per l’Unione Europea e la Gran Bretagna sono molto istruttive: nel 2030, le emissioni del 50% più povero saranno vicine al volume medio globale compatibile con 1,5°C… ma quelle del 10% più ricco saranno da cinque a sei volte superiori, e quelle dell’1% più ricco più di quindici volte.

Questi dati rendono abbondantemente chiaro che gli impegni di “giusta transizione” inclusi nelle risoluzioni ufficiali della COP non sono altro che una facciata. Bla, bla, bla. In realtà, c’è un doppio movimento: 1/ l’ingiustizia climatica si sta approfondendo e 2/ la classe dei super-ricchi/super-inquinatori si sta ricomponendo con l’ascesa del Capitale in Asia. All’interno di questo gruppo, non è esagerato parlare di un cambiamento. Nel 2015, l’1% più ricco del pianeta ha emesso il 15% della CO2 globale. I ricchi cinesi hanno contribuito per il 14%, i ricchi americani per il 37%, gli europei per l’11% e gli indiani per il 5%. Secondo le proiezioni dello studio, entro il 2030, l’1% più ricco avrà aumentato la sua quota di CO2 globale di un ulteriore 16%. Ma i ricchi cinesi contribuiranno al 23%, i ricchi americani al 19%, i ricchi europei al 4% e i ricchi indiani all’11%[12]. Riassunto nella tabella qui sotto:

L’autore dello studio non lo nota, ma colpisce anche il fatto che, all’altra estremità della piramide del reddito, c’è una convergenza abbastanza chiara delle impronte di carbonio: il 50% dei poveri negli Stati Uniti, nell’Unione Europea, in Gran Bretagna e in Cina emetterà una quantità relativamente simile di CO2 pro capite nel 2030, poco sopra o poco sotto le 2,3t/pers/anno[13]

Un quadro incompleto
Nonostante il suo grande interesse, lo studio Oxfam non dà un quadro completo delle responsabilità climatiche dei diversi gruppi di reddito. È più che probabile che sottostimi le emissioni attribuibili ai più ricchi, ma anche che sovrastimi le emissioni attribuibili al 40% medio della popolazione, e anche a una frangia del 10% più ricco. Ci sono due difficoltà.

In primo luogo, le emissioni attribuibili all’1% più ricco sono tanto difficili da rintracciare quanto i loro beni, e per la stessa ragione: il segreto bancario, l’evasione fiscale e l’assenza di un registro della ricchezza. L’autore nota:

“Mentre ci sono metodi robusti per stimare le impronte individuali applicando coefficienti di carbonio a beni e servizi identificati nei censimenti della popolazione, è ampiamente riconosciuto che questi metodi sotto-rappresentano il consumo dei cittadini più ricchi.

Per superare questo problema, lo studio si basa sul lavoro di ricercatori che hanno evidenziato diverse realtà. Per esempio:

-I dati disponibili su automobili, case, aerei e yacht indicano che le emissioni derivanti dal consumo dei miliardari raggiungono facilmente diverse migliaia di tonnellate di CO2/pers/anno. I superyacht, le cui vendite stanno esplodendo nel contesto della pandemia, sono le principali fonti di queste emissioni (un superyacht emette circa 7000 tonnellate di CO2/anno)[14] ;

-Il trasporto è la più grande fonte di emissioni per le persone più ricche. In particolare il trasporto aereo: secondo alcuni studi, il 50% dei voli passeggeri sono effettuati dall’1% della popolazione mondiale. Sulla base dei viaggi delle celebrità, l’impronta “aeroplano” dei più ricchi può essere considerata come diverse migliaia di tonnellate di CO2/anno. Il folle sviluppo del “turismo spaziale” può solo amplificare la tendenza[15].

Tuttavia, questo consumo iper-lusso è solo la punta dell’iceberg. Non cattura le emissioni attribuibili agli investimenti capitalistici dell’1% più ricco. L’autore incorpora un lavoro che stima che il 70% dell’impronta di carbonio delle persone più ricche proviene dai loro investimenti capitalistici. Ma questa è solo una stima, complicata dall’opacità del settore finanziario.

In secondo luogo, anche applicando il suddetto coefficiente di carbonio alle emissioni delle famiglie, distribuire le emissioni del settore aziendale e pubblico su tutta la popolazione è un approccio discutibile.

Questo non tiene conto del fatto – menzionato nello studio – che i più grandi emettitori di CO2 (l’1% più ricco) hanno “un’influenza sproporzionata sulle decisioni a causa del loro status, potere politico e accesso ai responsabili politici”. Per fare un esempio: il progetto dell’aeroporto di Notre-Dame-des-Landes serviva i bisogni di Vinci e dei suoi azionisti, non quelli delle classi popolari. Lo stesso ragionamento vale per le spese militari e per molti altri progetti, per non parlare delle sovvenzioni pubbliche alle imprese.

Limiti dell’analisi basata sul consumo
Questo è il limite di un approccio alla catastrofe climatica basato sul consumo per diversi gruppi di reddito. Infatti, poiché ogni consumo presuppone la produzione, i livelli di consumo dei gruppi di reddito devono essere analizzati alla luce delle posizioni che occupano nella produzione. L'”influenza sproporzionata” dell’1% più ricco si trova ovunque perché i membri di questo gruppo possiedono i mezzi di produzione. Sono la classe dominante e lo stato è lo strumento del loro dominio. Le classi lavoratrici si trovano in una situazione completamente diversa: sono soggette alle decisioni di imprese e istituzioni sulle quali non hanno alcun controllo, e producono oltre i loro bisogni, per il profitto dei capitalisti. Essi sopportano quindi un volume di emissioni che deriva dalla dinamica produttivista del capitale, non dalla loro libera volontà.

Di fronte alla mistificazione del discorso dominante che ci esorta indiscriminatamente a “cambiare il nostro comportamento”, lo studio di Oxfam ha il grande merito di mettere sotto i riflettori le enormi disuguaglianze nel consumo e di esprimerle in termini di responsabilità nelle emissioni di CO2. Inoltre, evidenzia che la politica del governo, nonostante tutti i discorsi su una “transizione giusta”, sta approfondendo l’ingiustizia climatica.

Allo stesso tempo, è facile vedere che la soluzione non può venire solo da misure prese all’interno della sfera dei consumatori. Facciamo l’ipotesi assurda che, entro il 2030, l’1% più ricco o il 10% più ricco avranno ridotto le loro emissioni a 2,3 tCO2/persona/anno. In questo caso, per rimanere entro il limite di 1,5°C, il 40% della cosiddetta “classe media” dovrebbe ancora dividere le sue emissioni per più di due nell’Unione Europea e in Gran Bretagna, per tre in Cina e per circa quattro negli Stati Uniti[16]. Come si può raggiungere questo obiettivo? La ridistribuzione radicale della ricchezza (come proposto da Thomas Piketty), anche se essenziale, non risolverebbe il problema – lo sposterebbe soltanto. La sfida può essere vinta solo ridefinendo i bisogni reali della maggioranza sociale, organizzando la produzione secondo questi bisogni ed eliminando la produzione inutile e dannosa.

“Accettabilità sociale” si riferisce alla difficoltà degli sforzi da sopportare. Per la maggior parte delle persone, questo è un deterrente. Sono certamente necessari profondi cambiamenti, e non basta “far pagare i ricchi”. Ma dobbiamo osare pensare in termini di “desiderabilità”. Produrre meno, per i bisogni; trasportare meno, lavorare meno, condividere di più; prendersi cura delle persone e degli ecosistemi; gestire le risorse in modo sobrio, collettivo e democratico, per vivere una vita buona e confortevole per tutti: questa è la prospettiva ecosocialista che può costituire la base di un piano di riforma delle strutture anticapitaliste adattate al XXI secolo. Perché una cosa è certa: non c’è via d’uscita senza sfidare la competizione per il profitto, la forza motrice del produttivismo basato sul diritto di proprietà capitalista.

*

Pubblicato sul sito della Gauche anticapitaliste, 9 dicembre 2021

Note
[1] Forse con un piccolo superamento temporaneo, secondo Rockström.

[2] Vedi la mia valutazione del COP26.

[3] https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-set-be-30-times-15degc-limit-2030.

[4] Applicando un “coefficiente di carbonio” ai beni e servizi consumati.

[5] Si ritiene che le disuguaglianze tra paesi contribuiscano al 70% della disuguaglianza globale del carbonio.

[6] L’1% è incluso nel 10%.

[7] NDC, in altre parole “piani climatici” nazionali

[8] Questo divario viene chiamato “divario di emissioni”.

[9] Per una popolazione di 7,9 miliardi nel 2030

[10] L’autore consolida così la conclusione che aveva raggiunto in una precedente pubblicazione: un terzo del budget di carbonio compatibile con l’Accordo di Parigi è sprecato per estendere il consumo del 10% più ricco della popolazione mondiale

[11] Espresso in termini di equivalente a tempo pieno, il reddito medio annuo lordo dei dipendenti è di circa 44.000 dollari/anno in Europa occidentale e di 63.000 dollari/anno negli Stati Uniti. A seconda della fonte, varia tra i 9.200$/anno e i 14.000$/anno in Cina, Brasile e Sudafrica

[12] Data l’importanza del carbone in Cina e in India, questo “cambiamento nella geografia della disuguaglianza del carbonio”, come dice lo studio, potrebbe aiutare a spiegare perché la quota dell’1% delle emissioni globali continuerà ad aumentare, mentre quella del 10% no.

[13] L’India è l’unico grande paese emettitore dove le emissioni del 50% rimarranno ben al di sotto delle 2,3t – lo stesso livello dei cosiddetti paesi “in via di sviluppo”.

[14] https://luxus-plus.com/les-milliardaires-boostent-le-marche-des-superyachts/

[15] Data la dipendenza del trasporto aereo dai combustibili fossili, l’uso intensivo degli aerei da parte dell’1% può essere una seconda spiegazione del fatto che la quota di emissioni globali di questo gruppo continuerà ad aumentare, in contrasto con quella del 10%.

[16] L’India è l’unico grande paese emettitore in cui le emissioni del 40% rimangono al di sotto di 2,3tCO2/persona/anno nel 2030, secondo lo studio.

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